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Skip to comments.Posted on 08/15/2016 10:39:15 AM PDT by jmaroneps37The Pew Institute has done extensive research on the differences between how people respond in self-generated online polls and those that require answering questions posed by another person. This is a topic well worth pursuing; but to make sure each step of this inquiry rests on solid ground an important point from another Pew survey must be considered. In 2014 Pew released the results of a study that focused on the percentage of people who were responding to pollsters’ calls. Pew found that in 1997 36% of its attempts at securing a respondent resulted in a willing participant in their surveys. It further reported that by 2012 that number had declined to 31% but thereafter sharply dropped to just 8% in 2014. A political yst commenting on this finding said, “The problem is simple but daunting. The foundation of opinion research has historically been the ability to draw a random sample of the population. That’s become much harder to do.” Keep that in mind. This begs a logical question: If pollsters have to make 100 calls in order to find 8 people willing to answer questions isn’t it quite possible that some would fall to the temptation to cut corners and re-call people they know will participate and answer in a certain way? Last December, Pew interviewed 2,397 registered Republicans and Republican leaning Independents using various means of conducting their interviews. About 1/3 answered questions about Donald Trump and other Republican primary candidates online. Another 1/3 answered questions posed by a live interviewer via telephone and the last 1/3 answered the same questions via automated voice response questioning. The finds were as follows. Thirty eight percent of the internet respondents supported Trump. Thirty six percent answering automated voice questions supported Trump but 32% said the same when questioned by a live interviewer. By way of comparison those asked about Ted Cruz and Ben Carson--who were under media fire during that period--did just 2% better online than with live interviewers. Most significantly the support numbers for Jeb Bush who was never attacked by the media did not vary regardless of the questioning method used. Of still more importance was the finding that Trump gathered 10% more support from college graduated respondents when they answered online. Moreover, among engaged respondents who are regular voters “Trump’s advantage in online polls. “.. compared with live telephone polling [Trump] has a spread of eight to nine percentage points[more support] among these engaged voters.” Applying hindsight to the question of how much hidden strength Trump has brings us to the fact that ultimately he won the Republican primary rather handily and did so with an undeniable amount of Democrat support in the numerous states that allow “cross over voting.” This elicits the question: How many Democrats refuse to tell pollsters they are voting for Trump? Pew asks and answers the question of why Trump does better in “anonymous” online polls with the suggestion that this is due to the “social desirability bias,” factor. This forces reluctance to be honest in answering because the respondent believes he/she would be viewed as a making a socially unacceptable choice by declaring support for Trump. It is worth noting that since December the number of attacks on Trump, and by extension those who support him, have grown exponentially and if this factor was true last December it is enormously more true today. The executive summary of the Pew survey holds some very encouraging news for Trump. “[This study] also builds on an authoritative report by the Pew Research Center demonstrating that there can be striking differences between self-administered and internet-administered surveys. “Much work remains to better understand which types of polls are actually right in predicting Trump’s support levels, but a key implication of the study is that many national polls may be underestimating Trump’s support levels.” Finally, the study suggests that divergent findings in online and phone polling are at least partly explained by adults answering identical questions differently online versus on the phone, that is, a social desirability bias in which respondents answer questions in a manner they believe will be viewed favorably by others.”Because nobody wants to admit they support Hillary? lolWhatever excuse the MSMs can create to justify their corrupt pollsTrump will easily reach 60% of the votes cast. That may not be enough to defeat Hillary at 35%. It is not who votes but who counts the votes that determines the winner.I will say I think the Union voters who switch sides would be very unlikely to say it publicly in any format, for obvious reasons.My support for Trump is measured by my determination to go vote for him even if it means I crawl over broken glass, gunfire, and poisonous snakes to do so.Pew survey establishes Trump supporters more willing to express support for him in online polls Probably because more of them know how to post.You know, I generally don’t answer out of area code calls but I just realized for the next three months I will. Consider, we all know the Rats rely heavily on their fancy computer to inform them of just how many votes they “have” at each address in America. What if I start telling pollsters that I, my wife and all of our 4 children are bound and determined to vote Hillary. If I do this consistently for 6 weeks or so and then start adding, and my four cousins visiting from Honduras are voting Hillary as well.”I doubt that they would ever fall for that at my address but if we all start doing this some of that data may get into their computer. Imagine their astonishment when they discover too late that they need to find a lot more absentee ballots in the trunk than they had prepared!And there's another factor here, too, and not mentioned. Busy people are apt to working, or don't answer the phone to do surveys. And busy, working people fit more into the Trump voter segment. Stay at home, not working people, meanwhile, are apt to pick up the phone and respond. I'd love to know how Pew and the others are addressing that issue. The polls are a swag, which means you need to rely on common sense and good judgement to predict what will happen. Romney, a lousy candidate and generally hated by the Tea Party faction, almost won the election in 2012. He was pretty close from an electoral college standpoint. But Trump is a better candidate by a long shot and is a real fighter and communicator. Trump's already showing he can capture a higher percent of black, Latino, and blue collar voters. So do I believe Trump will do much better than Romney considering all the terrible things going on in the world today? Yes, I do. In this day and age, we have cell phones...how many people have ‘land lines’? Most of our children don't even know what a ‘land line’ is, my grandson the other night was talking to his mom on my cell phone and wanted to ‘face time’ with her, but she was on a ‘land line’ at her work... I explained to him what the difference was, he was confused...see, we live in a ‘technological’ world now, so how many of those that had ‘land lines’ when Romney was running have converted over to cell phones? Do the pollsters just take who they called back then and in 2008 and do their own figures? I think they do..interesting isn't it.... There is absolutely nothing we can do about the many polls taken, with the exception of ignoring them and continue to do the best job we can to see DJT walk thru the White House doors with a plaque that reads 'We have arrived, now let's get to work" TRUMP must TRiUMPh Genius Pew Institute./sWhen the phone rings no one wants to admit they support Trump for fear someone will come to their house and burn it down with their wife and kids inside. If Hillary has their phone number she also has their address.I'm kind of unusual because I don't use a personal cell phone except when I'm travelling or in the car. Of course, I'm constantly on the grid via my PC :- ) Here's an estimate that says we still have more than 100 million land lines and about a quarter of those phones lines ride on the internet (through Vonage, Comcast, etc.) This does not count the phone calls made via Skype etc. I suspect the vast majority of these wireline connections are business lines. After almost 25 years of office environment the phone has become obsolete. Not having one has not been a big deal. When not home, the cell is good to have at hand for any type of emergency or cries for help. Seldom used other than to make and confirm appointments. EMAIL has become more of a go to source when talking with friends and family and is done on a more regular basis. The cell service is with Straight Talk, and although not perfect, for the most part it is adequate. The random incoming call is rarely seen and normally never answered. If the incoming is important, they have the opportunity to leave a voice mail message. 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